Independent research by Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM) released in January 2001, indicates that if logging in the Otway catchments was stopped, mean annual flow would increase by between 7% and 28%.

The Sinclair Knight Merz report concluded:

"However, should no disturbance occur to the forest cover, average annual yields will increase. For the West Barwon catchment, simulated yield was shown to have increased by up to 10% after 100 years. The corresponding increases in the Greater Arkins and St George catchments are 28% and 7% respectively."

Basis of SKM conclusions

• The conclusions are based on mathematical modelling using Kuczera curves calibrated on the existing stream flow data of the largely undisturbed East Barwon catchment and Arkins Creek catchment

The three scenarios evaluated were:

• no clearfell logging
• RFA logging scenario as proposed by the DNRE
• 50% of catchment destroyed by wildfire

See Results of SKM research for the West Barwon dam.